On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a series of global tariffs aimed at addressing perceived trade imbalances and protecting American industries. These tariffs, which encompass a wide range of goods from various countries, were positioned as a means to reinforce domestic manufacturing and revive the U.S. economy.

However, the implementation of these tariffs has led to significant chaos in global supply chains, prompting concerns about rising costs for consumers and businesses alike. The tariffs also triggered conflict between the US and China. The US put a significant 145% tariff on China and the country retaliatied with a 125% tariff on American goods.

As a result, 73% of global business leaders believe risks around operating in the US have increased significantly, mirrored by 67% that believe the same about operating in mainland China.

In fact, 72% note that the conflict poses a major threat to the future success of their organisation. The impacts are also likely to be long felt with 72% of leaders noting that higher tariffs will be a feature of the global economic order for the foreseeable future.

These were the results of a study by independent communications, public affairs and research group Sandpiper which surveyed 3,050 business leaders in 27 countries on the impact of the trade tariffs. 

It also found that though it is clear that nobody wins from this, 70% of business leaders think it will shrink the standing of the US in the world, compared to 60% who think it will reduce mainland China in the same way. In fact, more than half (56%) believe the US economy will be “heavily impacted”, the worst affected of all markets.

Worryingly, almost half (43%) rate the level of risk to their business of this trade dispute as eight or more out of 10, and more than half expect these risks to rise over the next six, 12 and 24 months. And yet, despite high levels of anxiety, 38% of business leaders in ASEAN countries and 21% in mainland China say they are not well prepared to deal with these risks. 

"Many Asian companies are caught like rabbits in the headlights, unsure whether to bend to Washington or go all in with Beijing," said Simon Buckby, managing director or government and public affairs to PRovoke Media. "But they should not wait for events to overtake them. They should be preparing for every eventuality, monitoring daily a bespoke comprehensive risk register, developing scenario plans, engaging with government ministers, and aligning with national economic priorities."

Global business leaders regard all types of geopolitical risks as having increased over the past six months, it said. The highest perceived increase in risk levels relates to disagreements between states and political pressure from the US – three quarters (76%) of global business leaders believing that risks arising from both of these factors have increased compared with six months ago.

Risks arising from US trade and economic policies and a widespread economic contraction are also believed to have increased by at least 70% of global business leaders.

Inflationary risks and risks resulting from supply chain disruption are also believed to be higher than six months ago according to almost seven out of ten business leaders. Mainland China’s trade and economic policies and political pressure are also regarded as being bigger risk dividers than they were 6 months ago by just under two thirds (64%) of business leaders.

While mainland China and US trade policies are at the epicentre of the heightened risk environment, European trade policies and political pressure are also seen as driving greater risk compared with six months ago by almost six out of ten global business leaders. It is noteworthy that global business leaders see increased risks coming from all quarters too, not just as a direct result of the trade conflict. A clear majority of business leaders see increased business risks resulting from AI, managing social media and consumer activism, said Sandpiper. 


Pain is anticipated to be widespread – with US businesses being perceived most likely to be “impacted a great deal” by the current geopolitical events (56% “impacted a great deal”). This perception holds even amongst US headquartered businesses (59%). India (62%) and ASEAN nations (62%) were most likely to see US businesses as being the most heavily impacted.


Chinese businesses and business operations are also considered likely to be “impacted a great deal” (by 49% of global business leaders), though respondents from mainland China-based companies were more sanguine about their prospects (43%). Leaders from US-based businesses were more likely to anticipate major impacts on Chinese businesses (54%), whereas Australia (38%) and New Zealand (30%), both with very high dependencies on exports to mainland China, were much more optimistic about Chinese business prospects.

For those nations further removed either geographically or strategically from the US and mainland China impacts are expected to be lower, but still severe, with more than one third of global business leaders believing East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia, South and Central America, and the UK and Europe will be heavily impacted. Impacts are expected to be lowest in Africa and Australia- New Zealand, though one in four business leaders still believe these regions will have their businesses heavily impacted by the current geopolitical risks.

There is also a widespread perception that the trade war will increase risk across all business areas, with supply chain and logistics being especially impacted, based on half of business executives believing these functions would be impacted “a great deal”. Perceived impacts were somewhat lower but still severe for manufacturing (44% “impacted a great deal”), products and services (43%) and sales and marketing functions (42%).

The majority of global business leaders are also pessimistic about the level of business risk improving any time soon. This pessimism applies to the short, medium and long term.

Short-term pessimism is highest in mainland China where two in three (62%) business leaders believe that business risk will increase in the next 30 days, compared with 67% in India and 56% in the US, 59% across ASEAN markets, and only 20% in New Zealand. There is an even greater sense of pessimism in the very long term (more than three years from now) with 69% of Chinese, 52% of US and 66% of Indian business leaders believing business risk will increase over that time period. Six in ten ASEAN business leaders (63%) and around half of those in Australia-New Zealand (46%) and Europe (50%) felt the same.


Sandpiper also asked business leaders to rate the level of latent business risk in the current geopolitical environment on a scale from one to 10 where one is very low risk and 10 is very high risk. A high 43% of global business leaders rate the level of latent risk in the current geopolitical climate as eight out of 10 or higher. In mainland China this rose to 57% against 49% in the US. For markets that could potentially be expected to be caught in the crossfire, levels were even higher – 52% in Vietnam, 58% in the Philippines and 74% in Hong Kong.

Elsewhere in East Asia, levels of concern were lower – 34% in Japan and 40% in South Korea. Western European nations had relatively low risk perceptions as well – 34% in the UK, 34% in Germany and 22% in the Netherlands.

Given the heightened risk environment, it’s concerning that many business leaders don’t feel well prepared to deal with the upcoming turbulence, said Sandpiper. Globally, almost four in 10 business leaders (40%) feel they are not well prepared to deal with the current level of geopolitical turbulence. Chinese businesses (80% well prepared) feel significantly better prepared than do US businesses (62% well prepared).

Business leaders in traditional US allied markets in East Asia feel particularly exposed with a minority saying they are well prepared. European business leaders are scarcely better equipped for what’s to come with just over half (52%) saying they are well prepared.

Business leaders in India (73% well prepared) and ANZ (72% well prepared) feel relatively better prepared– which may reflect their strategic ‘distance’ from the US- mainland China trade conflict.

Global business leaders were also presented with a range of tools that could be used to help maintain business continuity during the current geopolitical turbulence. Three out of four business leaders validate the importance of being prepared with the tools required to deal with the current geopolitical risk environment.

Two out of three business leaders lack a high degree of confidence that they are well prepared with the tools required to deal with the current geopolitical risk environment.